Home Price Declines Easing - Latest Three Month Data Indicates Improvement Trend
Robert L. Labbé - December 23, 2008The rate at which US home prices declined in the past three (3) months has been decreasing. "The consistent deceleration over the past two months with November indicating the same trend in price declines is encouraging because it could portend the trough in price declines," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic. Year over year home price declines stood at 11.2% in September, 10.4% in October and are anticipated to decrease to 9.6% for November 2008. However, the economist cites continued job layoffs and the large inventory of unsold homes as major negatives weighing on the housing market, suggesting that home prices will continue to decline but with a moderating pace throughout 2009. CoreLogic's data, arguably the best in the industry, covers 7,618 Zip Codes and 677 counties in 50 states. It's too early to declare a bottom, but the three (3) month figures show that home price declines have indeed been easing. Greater affordability as a result of price declines and The Federal Reserve's recent cut in short-term rates could help continue the slowing rate of decline in home prices in 2009.
12-Month Single Family Change by Top Core Based Statistical Areas
October 2007- 2008 (- 11.2%)
|
12-Month Change |
|
|
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA |
-28.79% |
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward CA |
-28.55% |
Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL |
-27.34% |
Las Vegas-Paradise NV |
-26.56% |
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale CA |
-26.48% |
Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL |
-25.94% |
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ |
-23.19% |
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos CA |
-23.06% |
Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach FL |
-22.03% |
Orlando-Kissimmee FL |
-18.92% |
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City CA |
-16.28% |
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL |
-16.13% |
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV |
-13.74% |
Honolulu HI |
-13.28% |
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL |
-10.32% |
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI |
-10.30% |
Seattle-Bellevue-Everett WA |
-9.40% |
Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton OR-WA |
-9.05% |
Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn MI |
-7.45% |
Boston-Quincy MA |
-7.39% |
Edison-New Brunswick NJ |
-5.34% |
New York-White Plains-Wayne NY-NJ |
-5.23% |
Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor OH |
-4.94% |
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord NC-SC |
-3.93% |
St. Louis MO-IL |
-3.29% |
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA |
-3.14% |
Philadelphia PA |
-2.52% |
Salt Lake City UT |
-2.45% |
Denver-Aurora CO |
-1.86% |
Raleigh-Cary NC |
-0.88% |
San Antonio TX |
1.39% |
Dallas-Plano-Irving TX |
2.43% |
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown TX |
4.43% |
Austin-Round Rock TX |
5.26% |
| Source: First American CoreLogic | |
Worst Performing US Housing Markets in California - In the rankings of the top ten (10) worst performing markets in the nation, California holds 9 out of 10 spots, with annual price declines ranging from 26.95% to 29.06%.
| Salinas CA | -29.06% |
| Merced CA | -28.97% |
| Stockton CA | -28.86% |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -28.79% |
| Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -28.65% |
| Oakland-Fremont-Hayward CA | -28.55% |
| Modesto CA | -28.41% |
| Bakersfield CA | -28.01% |
| Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall FL | -27.34% |
| Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville CA | -26.95% |
| Source: First American CoreLogic | |
In Southern California, repossessed homes made up 55 percent of resales in November, DataQuick reported, driving prices down to early 2003 levels. Sales velocity increased however year over year for the 5th consecutive month. "Bargains and bargain hunters have kept this market alive" according to DataQuick President John Walsh, adding: "Many first-time homebuyers are, understandably, cheering as foreclosures dominate sales, tugging down prices and raising affordability."
Robert L. Labbé is President of MorCap Fund Advisors, LLC. He can be reached at rlabbe@morcapadvisors.com
